PIVOT POINT TRADING
Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations.
The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels.
The pivot level and levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.
The reason pivot point trading is so popular is that pivot points are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).
If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:
Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)
As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.
If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is for long trades as long as price remains above the pivot point. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades as long as the market remains below the pivot point.
The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.
The general idea behind trading pivot points is to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.
A perfect set up would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position.
This all looks pretty straight forward.
Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. we have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points.
On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following:
High - 1.2297
Low - 1.2213
Close - 1.2249
This gave us:
Resistance 3 = 1.2377
Resistance 2 = 1.2337
Resistance 1 = 1.2293
Pivot Point = 1.2253
Support 1 = 1.2209
Support 2 = 1.2169
Support 3 = 1.2125
There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad.
The Breakout Trade
At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This cab be a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day.
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The Pullback Trade
The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that the market sentiment is beginning to change.
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Advanced
As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode.
Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators to help determine an entry around a pivot level but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation.
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We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson. I just want to introduce another possible way for you to trade.
STOCK MARKET TIPS FOR YOU.
1] Do not overtrade.
Have two accounts. One real account and the other a demo account. Learning doesn't stop when trading real dollars begins. Keep the demo account and use it to test alternative trades, alternative stops, etc.
Patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades,but also in staying with trades that are working.
2] Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
To pick tops and bottoms is another common fx trading mistake. If you're going to trade tops and bottoms, at least wait until the price action actually confirms that a top or a bottom has been formed before you take a position in the market.
There are at least three types of markets: up trending, range bound, and down. Have different trading strategies for each.
Standing aside is a position.
In uptrends, buy the dips ;in downtrends, sell bounces.
In a Bull market, never sell a dull market, in Bear market, never buy a dull market.
Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS present, merely one is more dominant. In an up market, for example, it is very easy to take sell signal after sell signal, only to be stopped out time and again. Select trades with the trend.
3] Let your profits run, but don't let greed get in the way. Once you've already
made a nice profit on a trade, consider taking either some or all of the money off the table and move on to the next trade. It's natural to hope that one trade will end up as your "winning lottery ticket" and make you rich, but that is simply not realistic. Don't hold the position too long and end up giving all your well-deserved profits back to the market.4] To avoid letting your losses run, get into the habit of determining an acceptable profit target as well as an acceptable risk tolerance level for each and every forex trade before entering the market.Then simply place a stop-loss order at the appropriate price - but not so tight (close to the market) that the stop could quickly take you out of the position before the market has a chance to move in your favor. Using a stop is always the smart move.
5] Avoid placing protective stops at obvious round numbers. Protective stops on long positions should be placed below round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50,75, 100) and on short positions ,above such numbers.
Placing stop loss is an art. The trader must combine technical factors on the price chart with money management considerations.
Analyze your losses.
Employ at least a 3 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio.
6] Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it
Five steps to build a trading system: a) Start with a concept b)Turn it into a set of objective rules. c) Visually check it out on the charts d) Formally test it with a demo e) Evaluate the results.
Plan your work and work your plan.
Trade with a plan - not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, how much you will risk on the trade, and where you will take your profits.
7] Close out losing positions before the winning ones,
Except for very short term trading, make decisions away from the market, preferably when the markets are closed.
Work from the long term to the short term.
Use intraday charts to fine-tune entry and exit.
8] When you open an account with a broker, don't just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I'll trade till my stake runs out." Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.
9] Carry a notebook with you, and jot down interesting market information. Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations.
10] Shorter term averages are more sensitive to the price action ,whereas longer range averages are less sensitive.In certain types of markets ,it is more advantageous to use a shorter average and ,at other times , a longer and less sensitive average proves more useful.
When the closing price moves above the moving average , a buy signal is generated. A sell signal is given when prices move below the moving average.
11] A buying signal on a two-moving average combination occurs when the shorter term of two consecutive averages intersects the longer one upward. A selling signal occurs when the reverse happens, and the longer of two consecutive averages intersects the shorter one downward.
12] Common Points All Of Reversal Patterms
A)The first signal of an impending trend reversal is often the breaking of an important trendline. B)The larger the pattern,the greater the subsequent move
C)Topping patterns are usually shorter in duration and more volatile than bottoms.
D)Bottoms usually have smaller price ranges and take longer to build
13] The head-and-shoulders formation is confirmed only when the completion of the three rallies and their reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline. The failure of the price to break through the neckline on closing prices basis puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
14] The double-top formation is confirmed only when the full completion of the two rallies and their respective reversals is followed by a breach of the neckline (the closing price is outside the neckline ).The failure of the price to break through the neckline puts on hold or negates the validity of the formation.
The flag formation is a reliable chart pattern that provides two vital signals: direction and price objective. This formation consists of a brief consolidation period within a solid and steep upward trend or downward trend. The consolidation itself tends to be sloped in the opposite direction from the slope of the original trend, or simply flat.
A Breakaway gap provides the direction of the market.
15] The runaway or measurement gap provides the direction of the market. This gap confirms the health and velocity of the trend.
The runaway or measurement gap is the only type of gap that provides a price objective. The price objective is the previous length of the trend, measured from the runaway gap, in the same direction as the original trend.
The exhaustion gap provides the direction of the market.
